Retirement Calculator: Plan, Stress-Test and Draw Down Your Savings
This calculator projects your savings to retirement, estimates the capital you need, the income you can take and how long the money lasts, then stress-tests the plan against inflation, poor returns and historical market sequences — all from one profile.
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Primary answer
Projected $2,013,883 vs estimated target $900,000. Modeled success 100%.
Results dashboard
Retirement savings projection
Historical sequence backtest
100% of 70 historical starting years funded this plan. Worst start year: 1956; best: 1982. Median ending balance $5,966,050.
| Start year | Real ending balance | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| 1956 | $2,291,561 | survived |
| 1957 | $2,419,161 | survived |
| 1965 | $2,602,235 | survived |
| 1966 | $2,604,392 | survived |
| 1955 | $2,634,985 | survived |
When can I retire?
The first modeled retirement age meeting your 85% threshold is 56. Retiring at your planned age of 67 to that threshold would take about $0 more per month.
Decision levers — what would improve the plan?
| Change | New modeled success | Improvement |
|---|---|---|
| Save $250 more per month | 100% | +0 pts |
| Retire one year later | 100% | +0 pts |
| Spend 5% less in retirement | 100% | +0 pts |
| Reduce fees by 0.25 percentage points | 100% | +0 pts |
| Delay guaranteed income two years | 100% | +0 pts |
| Lower the legacy target to zero | 100% | +0 pts |
Each row is the independent effect of one change. The largest number is not automatically the best choice for you.
Plan robustness — stress test
The plan passes 7 of 7 defined stress tests at your 85% success threshold.
| Stress | Modeled success | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline assumptions | 100% | Pass |
| Inflation +1 percentage point | 100% | Pass |
| Returns −1 percentage point | 100% | Pass |
| Retirement starts in a major market decline | 96.4% | Pass |
| Spending +10% | 100% | Pass |
| Guaranteed income starts two years later | 100% | Pass |
| Life extends five years | 100% | Pass |
Scenario comparison
| Scenario | Projected balance | Target | Modeled success | Depletion age |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Your current plan | $2,013,883 | $900,000 | 100% | beyond the plan horizon |
| Can I retire at 55? | $1,403,683 | $1,500,000 | 77.4% | age 86 |
| $1 million and the 4% rule | $1,000,000 | $1,000,000 | 92.8% | beyond the plan horizon |
| How long can $500,000 last? | $500,000 | $875,000 | 26.4% | age 81 |
Example scenarios load complete inputs and are illustrations, not recommendations.
Year-by-year table
| Age | Phase | Opening | Contribution | Growth | Guaranteed | Spending | Withdrawal | Ending | Today’s $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | Saving | $150,000 | $12,000 | $9,095 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $171,095 | $166,922 |
| 37 | Saving | $171,095 | $12,000 | $10,330 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $193,425 | $184,105 |
| 38 | Saving | $193,425 | $12,000 | $11,636 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $217,062 | $201,563 |
| 39 | Saving | $217,062 | $12,000 | $13,019 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $242,081 | $219,314 |
| 40 | Saving | $242,081 | $12,000 | $14,483 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $268,565 | $237,372 |
| 41 | Saving | $268,565 | $12,000 | $16,033 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $296,598 | $255,755 |
| 42 | Saving | $296,598 | $12,000 | $17,673 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $326,271 | $274,480 |
| 43 | Saving | $326,271 | $12,000 | $19,410 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $357,680 | $293,565 |
| 44 | Saving | $357,680 | $12,000 | $21,247 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $390,928 | $313,027 |
| 45 | Saving | $390,928 | $12,000 | $23,193 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $426,121 | $332,885 |
| 46 | Saving | $426,121 | $12,000 | $25,252 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $463,373 | $353,157 |
| 47 | Saving | $463,373 | $12,000 | $27,432 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $502,805 | $373,863 |
| 48 | Saving | $502,805 | $12,000 | $29,739 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $544,544 | $395,023 |
| 49 | Saving | $544,544 | $12,000 | $32,181 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $588,725 | $416,657 |
| 50 | Saving | $588,725 | $12,000 | $34,767 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $635,492 | $438,785 |
| 51 | Saving | $635,492 | $12,000 | $37,503 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $684,995 | $461,430 |
| 52 | Saving | $684,995 | $12,000 | $40,400 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $737,394 | $484,612 |
| 53 | Saving | $737,394 | $12,000 | $43,466 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $792,860 | $508,355 |
| 54 | Saving | $792,860 | $12,000 | $46,711 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $851,571 | $532,681 |
| 55 | Saving | $851,571 | $12,000 | $50,146 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $913,718 | $557,615 |
| 56 | Saving | $913,718 | $12,000 | $53,783 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $979,500 | $583,181 |
| 57 | Saving | $979,500 | $12,000 | $57,632 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $1,049,132 | $609,404 |
| 58 | Saving | $1,049,132 | $12,000 | $61,706 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $1,122,839 | $636,310 |
| 59 | Saving | $1,122,839 | $12,000 | $66,019 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $1,200,858 | $663,925 |
| 60 | Saving | $1,200,858 | $12,000 | $70,584 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $1,283,442 | $692,277 |
| 61 | Saving | $1,283,442 | $12,000 | $75,417 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $1,370,859 | $721,393 |
| 62 | Saving | $1,370,859 | $12,000 | $80,532 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $1,463,390 | $751,304 |
| 63 | Saving | $1,463,390 | $12,000 | $85,946 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $1,561,336 | $782,039 |
| 64 | Saving | $1,561,336 | $12,000 | $91,677 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $1,665,013 | $813,627 |
| 65 | Saving | $1,665,013 | $12,000 | $97,743 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $1,774,756 | $846,102 |
| 66 | Saving | $1,774,756 | $12,000 | $104,165 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $1,890,921 | $879,495 |
| 67 | Saving | $1,890,921 | $12,000 | $110,962 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $2,013,883 | $913,841 |
| 67 | Retired | $2,013,883 | $0 | $110,269 | $52,890 | $132,225 | $79,335 | $2,044,817 | $905,246 |
| 68 | Retired | $2,044,817 | $0 | $111,919 | $54,212 | $135,531 | $81,319 | $2,075,418 | $896,384 |
| 69 | Retired | $2,075,418 | $0 | $113,548 | $55,568 | $138,919 | $83,352 | $2,105,614 | $887,245 |
| 70 | Retired | $2,105,614 | $0 | $115,150 | $56,957 | $142,392 | $85,435 | $2,135,329 | $877,820 |
| 71 | Retired | $2,135,329 | $0 | $116,722 | $58,381 | $145,952 | $87,571 | $2,164,479 | $868,101 |
| 72 | Retired | $2,164,479 | $0 | $118,259 | $59,840 | $149,601 | $89,761 | $2,192,978 | $858,079 |
| 73 | Retired | $2,192,978 | $0 | $119,755 | $61,336 | $153,341 | $92,005 | $2,220,729 | $847,744 |
| 74 | Retired | $2,220,729 | $0 | $121,206 | $62,870 | $157,174 | $94,305 | $2,247,630 | $837,086 |
| 75 | Retired | $2,247,630 | $0 | $122,605 | $64,442 | $161,104 | $96,662 | $2,273,573 | $826,096 |
| 76 | Retired | $2,273,573 | $0 | $123,946 | $66,053 | $165,131 | $99,079 | $2,298,440 | $814,762 |
| 77 | Retired | $2,298,440 | $0 | $125,222 | $67,704 | $169,260 | $101,556 | $2,322,107 | $803,075 |
| 78 | Retired | $2,322,107 | $0 | $126,427 | $69,396 | $173,491 | $104,095 | $2,344,439 | $791,023 |
| 79 | Retired | $2,344,439 | $0 | $127,551 | $71,131 | $177,828 | $106,697 | $2,365,293 | $778,594 |
| 80 | Retired | $2,365,293 | $0 | $128,588 | $72,910 | $182,274 | $109,365 | $2,384,517 | $765,777 |
| 81 | Retired | $2,384,517 | $0 | $129,528 | $74,732 | $186,831 | $112,099 | $2,401,946 | $752,561 |
| 82 | Retired | $2,401,946 | $0 | $130,362 | $76,601 | $191,502 | $114,901 | $2,417,406 | $738,931 |
| 83 | Retired | $2,417,406 | $0 | $131,079 | $78,516 | $196,289 | $117,774 | $2,430,712 | $724,877 |
| 84 | Retired | $2,430,712 | $0 | $131,670 | $80,479 | $201,197 | $120,718 | $2,441,663 | $710,383 |
| 85 | Retired | $2,441,663 | $0 | $132,122 | $82,491 | $206,227 | $123,736 | $2,450,049 | $695,437 |
| 86 | Retired | $2,450,049 | $0 | $132,424 | $84,553 | $211,382 | $126,829 | $2,455,644 | $680,024 |
| 87 | Retired | $2,455,644 | $0 | $132,562 | $86,667 | $216,667 | $130,000 | $2,458,205 | $664,130 |
| 88 | Retired | $2,458,205 | $0 | $132,522 | $88,833 | $222,083 | $133,250 | $2,457,478 | $647,740 |
| 89 | Retired | $2,457,478 | $0 | $132,291 | $91,054 | $227,635 | $136,581 | $2,453,187 | $630,838 |
| 90 | Retired | $2,453,187 | $0 | $131,852 | $93,331 | $233,326 | $139,996 | $2,445,044 | $613,409 |
| 91 | Retired | $2,445,044 | $0 | $131,188 | $95,664 | $239,160 | $143,496 | $2,432,736 | $595,435 |
| 92 | Retired | $2,432,736 | $0 | $130,282 | $98,055 | $245,139 | $147,083 | $2,415,935 | $576,901 |
| 93 | Retired | $2,415,935 | $0 | $129,115 | $100,507 | $251,267 | $150,760 | $2,394,290 | $557,787 |
| 94 | Retired | $2,394,290 | $0 | $127,666 | $103,019 | $257,549 | $154,529 | $2,367,427 | $538,077 |
How much do I need to retire?
Start from the gap between your spending and any guaranteed income. The rule of 25 — 25 times your annual portfolio-funded spending — is a quick equivalent of a 4% initial withdrawal, but Social Security and pensions reduce the capital you need, while taxes, fees and a legacy target raise it. The deterministic and probabilistic targets can differ; the dashboard shows both.
Am I on track?
Compare your projected balance with the estimated target, and read the margin of safety from the modeled success rate rather than the point estimate. A plan can clear the deterministic target yet fail in many historical sequences — that gap is the difference between an average-return projection and a stress-tested one.
When can I retire?
The earliest age depends on your balance, saving rate, spending, guaranteed income, plan-through age and how much risk you will accept. The solver returns the first whole age meeting your success threshold; lowering spending or the threshold moves it earlier.
How long will my money last?
A fixed-period amortization answers one version of the question; inflation-adjusted spending, variable returns, sequence risk, taxes and a legacy target answer the harder one. The deterministic depletion age and the modeled success rate together give the honest picture.
The 4% rule and safe withdrawal rates
The 4% rule withdraws 4% in year one and adjusts for inflation thereafter, tested historically over roughly 30 years for a stock/bond mix. Horizon, allocation, fees and spending flexibility all move the sustainable rate. Historical success is not a guarantee, and "safe withdrawal rate" does not mean guaranteed.
Sequence-of-returns risk
Two retirements with the same average return can end very differently: a poor market in the first few years, while withdrawals drain the portfolio, does damage a later recovery cannot undo. The stress test starts retirement in a major decline to show the effect in your own numbers.
Inflation and retirement
Spending is entered in today’s dollars and grown to nominal amounts each year; balances are always shown in both nominal and today’s dollars so the two are never confused. Healthcare inflation typically runs above general inflation and deserves its own line as the model matures.
Taxes and account order
This version applies a single effective-rate simplification. A fuller model draws from taxable, tax-deferred and Roth accounts in an order that smooths tax, applies RMDs from the required beginning age, and routes any RMD above spending into a taxable account rather than assuming it is consumed.
One profile, every retirement answer
A single canonical page answers the questions that are usually split across separate tools: how much you need, whether you are on track, when you can retire, what income you can take, how long the money lasts, and whether a 4% withdrawal is reasonable. The intent selector changes which answer leads; it never loads a different dataset or a different page.
Because all six answers come from one simulation, they always agree. The retirement number you see in the 'how much' view is the same target the 'on track' view measures your projection against.
The result distinguishes nominal dollars from today's dollars everywhere, so a large future balance is never confused with its real purchasing power.
Three perspectives, not one
The deterministic projection answers the arithmetic questions under the exact return and inflation you enter. It is precise but assumes markets deliver the same return every year, which they do not.
The historical backtest re-runs your drawdown starting in every year the market dataset covers, so you see how the plan would have fared through the Depression, the 1970s and 2008 — and which starting years were worst.
The probabilistic simulation resamples historical real returns in multi-year blocks across thousands of paths and reports the share that funded your plan. It is reproducible: the same inputs and seed always return the same rate.
Sequence-of-returns risk
Two retirements with the same average return can end very differently depending on the order of returns. A poor market in the first few years of retirement, while withdrawals are draining the portfolio, does lasting damage that a later recovery cannot fully repair.
This is why the historical and probabilistic views matter: they expose the fragility that an average-return projection hides. The stress-test panel makes the effect explicit by starting retirement in a major historical decline.
A plan that succeeds deterministically but fails in a large share of historical sequences is not a safe plan; it is a plan that depends on a calm early retirement.
Methodology and formulas
ending = opening + contributions + return − fees — monthly compounding, contributions at end of month, fees netted from the return.nominal(t) = real × (1 + i)^t — today’s-dollar spending grown to each year.portfolio-funded = spending − guaranteed income — if negative, no forced withdrawal.nest egg ≈ funded spending × 25 — the 4% first-year-withdrawal heuristic, shown alongside the real plan.first-year withdrawal ÷ balance at retirement.PMT = PV · r / (1 − (1 + r)^−n).Convention: withdrawals occur at the start of each retirement year; a zero-return, zero-inflation plan reduces to linear cash flows.
Frequently asked questions
How much money do I need to retire?
Enough to fund the gap between your spending and any guaranteed income for as long as the plan runs. A quick heuristic is 25 times your annual portfolio-funded spending (the rule of 25, equivalent to a 4% initial withdrawal); the tool shows this alongside the deterministic and probabilistic targets, which can differ.
Can I retire with $1 million?
It depends on your spending, guaranteed income, age and horizon. Enter $1,000,000 as your savings: the tool reports the sustainable spending it supports, the first-year withdrawal at your chosen rate, and the share of historical and simulated paths in which it funds your plan to your plan-through age.
How long will $1 million last in retirement?
Enter the balance, your spending and return assumptions. The deterministic view shows the depletion age; the historical and probabilistic views show how long it lasted across real market sequences, including the worst starting years, rather than a single figure.
What is the 4% rule?
Withdraw 4% of the portfolio in the first year of retirement, then adjust that dollar amount for inflation each year. It is a historical rule of thumb for a roughly 30-year horizon and a stock/bond mix. The tool shows it beside a real drawdown so you can see where they agree and differ.
Is the 4% rule guaranteed?
No. It is based on historical U.S. returns over past 30-year windows, not a guarantee. Different horizons, allocations, fees or a poor sequence of early returns can make it too high or too low. 'Safe withdrawal rate' does not mean a guaranteed withdrawal rate.
How much should I save each month?
The solver reports the smallest additional monthly contribution that lifts your modeled success rate to your chosen threshold. It searches by re-running the full simulation, so the figure reflects your spending, income, fees and horizon — not a generic rule.
What age can I retire?
The earliest-age solver simulates each whole age from next year onward and returns the first that meets your modeled success threshold, given your savings, contributions, spending, guaranteed income and horizon.
How does inflation affect retirement savings?
It raises the nominal cost of the same lifestyle every year and erodes the purchasing power of a fixed balance. The tool inflates today's-dollar spending to nominal amounts, and always reports balances in both nominal and today's dollars so the two are never confused.
Does the calculator include Social Security?
Yes, as a guaranteed income you enter. It is netted against spending so only the remaining gap is funded from the portfolio. Confirm your benefit with the SSA; this tool does not compute it from your earnings history.
Does it include taxes?
This version applies a single effective-rate simplification rather than full federal and state returns. Account-aware taxation of taxable, tax-deferred and Roth withdrawals is on the roadmap; today the emphasis is on the cash-flow and sequence-risk picture.
What return should I assume?
A planning assumption you choose, not a forecast. Many planners use a real return well below recent stock-market averages to leave a margin of safety. Try a lower return in the stress test to see how fragile the plan is.
Why does the historical result differ from the probabilistic one?
The historical backtest uses the actual, ordered sequence of past returns; the probabilistic simulation resamples those returns in blocks across many synthetic paths. They answer slightly different questions, so two correct methods can report different success rates.
Data sources, review status and versions
- Aswath Damodaran (NYU Stern) — compiled from S&P, Federal Reserve and BLS series — Annual U.S. total returns for the S&P 500 (with dividends), 10-year Treasury bond, 3-month Treasury bill and C… · effective December 31, 2024 · retrieved January 15, 2026 · coverage 1928–2024 · pending verification
- U.S. Internal Revenue Service — IRS Required Minimum Distribution rules for 2026 — Uniform Lifetime Table distribution periods and the SECURE … · effective December 31, 2025 · retrieved January 15, 2026 · coverage n/a · pending verification
- U.S. Social Security Administration — Office of the Chief Actuary — Social Security Administration period life table — remaining life expectancy (years) by attained age, used onl… · effective December 31, 2025 · retrieved January 15, 2026 · coverage n/a · pending verification
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Evidence, sources and editorial review
Retirement Calculator: Plan, Stress-Test and Draw Down Your Savings groups its evidence and methodology review here so sources, assumptions and responsibility can be checked together.
References & authoritative sources
- Social Security Administration — Retirement benefit estimator and period life tables (Trustees Report 2026) · consulted January 15, 2026 · Life-expectancy reference for the plan-through helper; benefit amounts should be confirmed with the SSA estimator
- Internal Revenue Service — Required Minimum Distributions — Uniform Lifetime Table (Publication 590-B) · consulted January 15, 2026 · RMD required beginning age and distribution periods used in the RMD illustration
- Bureau of Labor Statistics — Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) · consulted January 15, 2026 · Definition of the inflation measure used to convert today's dollars to nominal amounts
- Aswath Damodaran (NYU Stern) — Historical Returns on Stocks, Bonds and Bills, 1928–2024 · consulted January 15, 2026 · Annual return series used for the historical backtest and block-bootstrap simulation
- Bengen, W. (1994), Journal of Financial Planning — Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical Data · consulted January 15, 2026 · Origin of the 4% initial-withdrawal rule of thumb discussed in the withdrawal-rate section
Methodology & review
Engine version: 1.0.0 · Last updated: · Review: Independent financial and technical review pending; bound datasets awaiting editorial verification.
Data status: the bound market, RMD and life-expectancy datasets are provisional and awaiting editorial verification against their publishers — treat the figures as educational estimates. This tool is not financial advice.
One deterministic simulation backs every answer: it projects savings to retirement with monthly compounding net of fees, converts today's-dollar spending to nominal amounts each year, nets guaranteed income against spending to find the portfolio-funded gap, and draws the portfolio down to the plan-through age. The same normalized plan is then re-run two more ways — a historical sequence backtest over every start year in a versioned market dataset, and a reproducible block-bootstrap of historical real returns (fixed seed) — so the page reports a modeled success rate, not a single number. Binary-search solvers return the required extra contribution, the earliest retirement age and the maximum sustainable spending at a chosen success threshold. Every market, RMD and life-expectancy figure comes from versioned datasets; none is written into the page copy. Returns are planning assumptions, not forecasts, and a modeled success rate is not a guarantee. Educational estimates, not individual investment, tax or legal advice.
Assumptions
- Contributions compound monthly and are added at the end of each month; the drawdown withdraws at the start of each retirement year.
- Spending is entered in today's dollars and inflated to nominal amounts each year at the inflation input.
- Guaranteed income (Social Security, pension) is netted against spending; only the remaining gap is funded from the portfolio.
- The historical backtest and probabilistic simulation model the retirement drawdown against real (inflation-adjusted) returns blended from the market dataset at a default 60/40 allocation.
- The probabilistic simulation uses a fixed seed, so the same inputs always reproduce the same modeled success rate.
Limitations
- Returns are planning assumptions, never forecasts; actual returns vary year to year and can be negative.
- A modeled success rate is the share of simulated paths that funded the plan — it is not a probability guarantee.
- The tax treatment in this version is a single effective-rate simplification; it does not run full federal or state returns.
- Social Security values should be confirmed with the SSA; this tool does not compute a benefit from your earnings history.
- The bound datasets are provisional and awaiting editorial verification against their publishers.
Reviewed according to the CalcDomain Editorial Policy & Calculator Methodology. We document formulas, edge cases, sources, update dates, and correction paths for calculator pages.